Investors in cryptocurrencies are missing the most important data to predict how their assets will perform in the future. There are significant profit-making opportunities in these assets, but the biggest obstacle to making a profit is having a high degree of confidence around their predicted value. This is complicated by the fact that cryptocurrencies have a limited financial history and are regularly punctuated by periods of sharp growth and decline on scales from days to months. Such volatility is not often seen in fiat currencies, and it is not sufficient to apply the patterns and models of traditional financial markets to current cryptocurrency markets and expect accurate predictions. In this talk, we will discuss a more comprehensive method relying on analysis of global trends and events responsible for driving behavioral, political, and economic activity in markets across the world. This method yielded a preliminary model that can predict the daily close price of Bitcoin for any day since August 16 2010, with a predictive accuracy of 98.25 percent - with room to improve.
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